February 13, 2026
AI Disruption Risk Assessment
Public markets are increasingly pricing in the risks and disruptions associated with artificial intelligence, with new industries coming into focus each day. Against this backdrop, Robert A. Stanger & Company, Inc. (“Stanger”) today announced the release of its AI Disruption Risk Assessment of the non-traded BDC landscape—an analysis the firm believes is timely given recent volatility and AI-driven repricing across public credit and equity markets. The assessment evaluates how artificial intelligence (“AI”) may influence underlying sector exposure across non-traded Business Development Companies (“BDCs”).
The assessment applies an AI disruption risk profile to each BDC’s most recently disclosed top five sector exposures, evaluating workforce displacement risk, margin compression potential, business-model vulnerability, and barriers to AI adoption. Across the universe analyzed, the top five sector exposures represent, on average, 52% of total portfolio allocation, underscoring the concentration risk embedded in non-traded BDC portfolios.
In aggregate, the analysis covers 22 non-traded NAV BDCs, representing $235.2 billion in total investment value and $130.7 billion in total net asset value, providing a comprehensive view of how AI-related disruption may impact credit risk and portfolio valuations across the space.
Aggregate Portfolio Risk Profile
The aggregate portfolio exposure across the 22 non-traded BDCs reviewed shows a meaningful concentration in the top 5 reported sectors vulnerable to artificial intelligence disruption:
“These findings suggest that AI disruption is not a theoretical or long-dated risk for BDC investors, Artificial Intelligence is already reshaping cost structures, competitive dynamics, and credit fundamentals in many of the sectors where non-traded BDCs are most active. Investors and advisors need to understand that not all sector exposure is created equal in an AI-driven economy.” said Kevin T. Gannon, Chairman & CEO of Robert A. Stanger & Co.
Stanger’s analysis shows that software, business services, and financial services represent the largest concentration of high-risk exposure across the non-traded BDC universe. These sectors are already experiencing rapid AI adoption that is compressing margins, displacing labor-intensive workflows, and altering traditional business models, all factors that may have downstream implications for credit performance.
Healthcare-related sectors generally fall into the medium-risk category, benefiting from regulatory oversight and the physical nature of care delivery, but remain exposed to AI-driven disruption in diagnostics, administration, and data-intensive services. In contrast, sectors such as building products, chemicals, food manufacturing, and energy exhibit lower near-term disruption risk due to tangible asset intensity and operational complexity.
“When we mapped individual BDC portfolios to our AI risk framework, the degree of concentration in high-disruption sectors was striking and echoes what is occurring in the public markets,” said Michael S. Covello, Executive Managing Director at Robert A. Stanger & Co., Inc. “Middle-market companies, the core borrowers for BDCs, often lack the capital and organizational flexibility to adapt as quickly as larger enterprises. That reality makes AI exposure an increasingly important credit variable that traditional underwriting models may not fully capture – a gap that, ironically, AI-powered tools are now helping to close.”
The analysis highlights several important implications for investors and financial advisors evaluating non-traded BDCs. Concentration risks in sectors should be considered, with a substantial portion of the top 5 sectors facing elevated levels of AI-driven disruption. At the same time, AI exposure varies materially by manager, creating meaningful differentiation across the non-traded BDC landscape that may not be readily apparent through conventional metrics alone. As a result, AI disruption risk should be incorporated into the due diligence process, alongside established considerations such as NAV stability, leverage, portfolio diversification, and distribution sustainability.
“This assessment involves subjective classifications of sectors by Stanger. Not all companies within higher-risk sectors will be negatively impacted by AI, and some may in fact benefit from it. We encourage sponsors to enhance disclosure and provide more granular portfolio information, valuation metrics, credit performance and non-accrual trends to further support informed due diligence.” said Raghav Devalla, Associate at Robert A. Stanger & Co., Inc.
Fund-Level AI Disruption Risk Assessment
Sorted by High-risk exposure in descending order. Each percentage reflects the combined disclosed sector exposures of the BDCs analyzed, aggregated and classified by Stanger:
The chart below summarizes Stanger’s subjective sector-level AI disruption risk classifications applied to non-traded BDC portfolios:
Source: Robert A. Stanger & Co., Inc. Sector allocations based on each fund’s disclosed top-5 industry concentrations.
For further information, please contact:
Gregory R. DiSalvo
732.389.3600
gdisalvo@rastanger.com
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About Robert A. Stanger & Co., Inc.
Robert A. Stanger & Co., Inc., founded in 1978, is a nationally recognized investment banking firm specializing in providing investment banking, financial advisory, fairness opinion and asset and securities valuation services to partnerships, real estate investment trusts and real estate advisory and management companies in support of strategic planning, capital formation and financings, mergers, acquisitions, reorganizations, and consolidations.
Stanger is also well known for its industry leading publications: The Stanger Report, a nationally recognized comprehensive report focused on non-traded REIT and BDC investing, including aggregate market statistics, total returns by company and total return indices, fee structure comparisons, and profiles of current offerings; The Stanger Market Pulse, a monthly deep-dive into alternative investment fundraising; The Stanger Chairman’s Report, focused on NAV REIT and non-traded BDC sales and redemptions; The Stanger Closed-End Fund Report, focused on non-traded interval fund and tender offer fund investing, Stanger Privates, a quarterly publication focused on Private Placement REITs and BDCs exclusively available to Stanger Institutional Access subscribers; and The Alt Street Journal, a weekly newsletter providing an update on industry activities.
For More Information:
Kevin T. Gannon | Chairman & CEO | (732) 389-3600
Robert A. Stanger & Co., Inc.
1129 Broad Street, Suite 201
Shrewsbury, NJ 07702
www.rastanger.com
Member: SIPC
