March 4, 2026
The same sequence that defined the non-listed REIT liquidity cycle is now emerging in non-listed BDCs, according to new Stanger analysis.
Robert A. Stanger & Company, Inc. (“Stanger”), a nationally recognized leader in non-listed alternative investment products, has released a new analysis examining emerging redemption dynamics in the non-listed BDC market, comparing them with the liquidity cycle experienced by non-listed REITs beginning in 2022.
The comparison highlights a pattern familiar to many market participants: declining fundraising followed by rising redemption requests. This sequence has ultimately reshaped the non-listed REIT market over the past several years, and early data suggests the non-listed BDC sector may be entering the early stages of a similar liquidity cycle.
The BDC market remains stable for now, as no non-listed BDC has any unmet redemption requests, despite several funds exceeding their standard 5% quarterly repurchase provisions. Still, declining inflows and rising redemption activity are beginning to mirror the early stages of the non-listed REIT cycle.
Fundraising Has Turned Sharply
Non-listed BDCs experienced a period of extraordinary growth during the expansion of private credit markets. Driven by rising interest rates and strong demand for credit strategies, the sector grew from $3.5 billion of capital formation in 2020 to $63.1 billion in 2025, making it one of the fastest-growing segments of the alternative investment market.
However, as Stanger has continued to report, BDC fundraising momentum has slowed in recent months, down nearly 50% from its early 2025 high. When indexed to its peak year and compared with the earlier REIT cycle, the trajectories begin to look strikingly similar.
Gross fundraising indexed to peak year = 100. Non-listed REITs (including DSTs) peaked in 2022; non-listed BDCs peaked in 2025. Source: Robert A. Stanger & Company, Inc. and Mountain Dell Consulting
The decline itself is not unusual in cyclical markets. What followed historically is more instructive. In the non-listed REIT market, redemption pressure persisted for several quarters after fundraising began to slow. Although redemption pressure began to normalize in mid-2024, fundraising levels have yet to recover to their 2021-2022 highs.
Redemption Activity Is Now Emerging
Recent disclosures suggest the BDC market has entered this phase of the cycle.
Blackstone Private Credit Fund (“BCRED”), the largest non-listed BDC, reported redemption requests of approximately 7.9% of NAV in Q1 2026. Fulfilling all requests required the repurchase limit to be increased from 5% to 7%, along with an additional $400 million investment from Blackstone and its employees. The next four largest funds fully satisfied Q4 2025 redemption requests ranging from 4% to 6%, while Blue Owl Technology Income Corp. repurchased over 15% after increasing its original offer from 5% to approximately 19%.
In the short term, these levels remain manageable. The more important question is whether redemption activity continues to rise.
When BCRED’s Q1 2026 redemption data is compared with Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust’s (“BREIT”) redemption cycle on a quarter-for-quarter basis, the early trajectories also appear similar.
BREIT quarterly redemption requests (Q1 2022 – Q1 2025) vs. BCRED (Q2 2025–Q1 2026), overlaid quarter-for-quarter.
BREIT’s first quarter of elevated redemption requests was approximately 12% of NAV and peaked in the following quarter at just under 20% of NAV. Elevated redemption requests persisted for another six quarters before falling back below the repurchase limits. BCRED currently stands at 7.9% of NAV in Q1 2026.
“We have been tracking capital flows in non-listed alternatives for nearly five decades, and the sequence that typically drives these cycles is very consistent. Fundraising slows first. Redemption requests begin to rise over the following quarters. Eventually leadership must begin managing liquidity more proactively. We call this the Stanger Liquidity Cycle, and what we are seeing today in the BDC market resembles the early stages of that process. Management should already be assessing liquidity capacity to ensure they can meet potential redemption demand. I expect we will be hearing from sponsors seeking capital solutions as these dynamics unfold.”
— Kevin T. Gannon, Chairman & CEO, Stanger
The Central Question
The BDC market differs from non-listed REITs in several important respects. Private credit portfolios generally feature shorter-duration assets and more liquid loan secondary markets. As a result, sponsors may be better positioned to manage redemption pressure than real estate vehicles were during the REIT redemption cycle.
However, the underlying mechanics of the market remain similar.
Continuous offerings funded by retail investors, combined with repurchase programs that contain quarterly limits, create a structure that functions efficiently during periods of capital inflows but can face pressure when flows reverse. The REIT and DST cycle demonstrated how quickly investor sentiment can shift once redemption requests begin to accelerate.
“Whether the BDC sector ultimately follows the same trajectory as non-listed REITs should become clearer over the coming months, as only four NAV BDCs have reported Q1 2026 tender offer results. Based on historical precedent, we expect the remaining funds to report their results between early April and mid-May. Liquidity dynamics in non-listed BDCs are beginning to draw closer scrutiny. The key question for investors is whether this market is fundamentally different or whether we are simply earlier in the same liquidity cycle.”
— Michael Covello, Executive Managing Director, Stanger
Additional data on non-listed alternative investment products is available across the full suite of Stanger Publications. For more information, please contact:
Gregory R. DiSalvo
732.389.3600
gdisalvo@rastanger.com
***
About Robert A. Stanger & Co., Inc.
Robert A. Stanger & Co., Inc., founded in 1978, is a nationally recognized investment banking firm specializing in providing investment banking, financial advisory, fairness opinion and asset and securities valuation services to partnerships, real estate investment trusts and real estate advisory and management companies in support of strategic planning, capital formation and financings, mergers, acquisitions, reorganizations, and consolidations.
Stanger is also well known for its industry leading publications: The Stanger Report, a nationally recognized comprehensive report focused on non-traded REIT and BDC investing, including aggregate market statistics, total returns by company and total return indices, fee structure comparisons, and profiles of current offerings; The Stanger Market Pulse, a monthly deep-dive into alternative investment fundraising; The Stanger Chairman’s Report, focused on NAV REIT and non-traded BDC sales and redemptions; The Stanger Closed-End Fund Report, focused on non-traded interval fund and tender offer fund investing, Stanger Privates, a quarterly publication focused on Private Placement REITs and BDCs exclusively available to Stanger Institutional Access subscribers; and The Alt Street Journal, a weekly newsletter providing an update on industry activities.
For More Information:
Kevin T. Gannon | Chairman & CEO | (732) 389-3600
Robert A. Stanger & Co., Inc.
1129 Broad Street, Suite 201
Shrewsbury, NJ 07702
www.rastanger.com
Member: SIPC
